You May Already Be

Here we go again. Here's a quick snapshot comparison of where I was last time and where I am now:

Event #1 18 players remaining 48K in chips, 2.78% of chips in play, 50% of par 3000/6000/1000 blinds and antes, M of 2.667
That one worked out okay for me, but it obviously took a fantastic amount of luck. There's some relatively good news regarding my current situation:
Event #12 29 players remaining 13.4K in chips, 1.58% of chips in play, 46% of par 800/1600/200 blinds and antes, M of 3.94
So I'm very close to where I was positioned in Event #1 given the number of players remaining. Once again, a lot will depend on the luck of the draw - particularly seating draws and button assignments. Last time I hit the jackpot - two medium-sized stacks to my left and I got the ace of spades when high-carding for the button. If I draw the big blind and have two monster stacks to my left I'm probably toast unless I get a hand in the first two orbits. The nice thing about being perpetually shortstacked is that you tend to become fairly cavalier about shoving all your chips into the middle. And yet I know I have a tight image - the only hands I showed down yesterday were KK, QQ, ATo (well, and a naked ace here and there to let people know I wasn't stealing willy-nilly, and 88 once when the small blind completed and I shoved because I wasn't taking any unnecessary risks at that point), and KJ, which was a stone bluff on which my opponent was freerolling but fortunately missed. I think I only ran four postflop bluffs all day: two in the early going which didn't work out, one pure bluff into two callers on an ace-high flop that fortunately did work out, and one that I can't remember clearly but I think I may well have been bluffing with the best hand. Oh, and I did win a race at some point, but the details escape me now. I remember having to look at the board half-a-dozen times to be sure I was good, but that's it. I was all-in and going to a showdown five times; two of those I had by far the best hand, one by far the worst (and yet somehow miraculously not behind), one a preflop coinflip, one a postflop coinflip. So my odds of having made it even this far are once again astronomically low. There were a number of bad beats at my table (set-over-set, top two pair counterfeited) and I had much worse odds of survival than those guys. Then again, I made two "good" folds that cost me dearly in the runup to the bubble. So once again, I'm damned lucky to be here. Lucky, as always, to be alive. I'm not prepared at this point to call it anything but luck - but I do seem to be here rather often, don't I?


Blogger StudioGlyphic said...

You will draw the button, get aces, and two of your opponents who outchip you will each have pocket queens. You'll flop the nut flush draw and get a runner-runner boat.

Good luck.

1/31/2006 02:03:00 PM  
Blogger Garthmeister J. said...

Go Ryan! Way to make me feel like a fool for not backing you!

1/31/2006 03:17:00 PM  
Blogger Wil Wheaton said...

Kick every ass, Ryan!

1/31/2006 05:13:00 PM  

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